ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of individuals living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region. The World Bank disclosed this statistic in its October 2026 regional economic update. Poverty levels were assessed based on the international threshold of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that level increased by 6.4 percentage points, making the country the leading contributor to extreme poverty within MENAAP.
Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen together represent another 47% of the population living below the $3 threshold across the region. Alongside Pakistan, these nations constitute roughly 95% of MENAAP’s extreme poor. Currently, about 14% of the global population experiencing extreme poverty resides in this region, second only to Sub-Saharan Africa. MENAAP remains the only region where poverty levels surpass pre-pandemic figures and continue to grow.
At the higher $4.20 daily income level used for lower-middle-income economies, Pakistan’s poverty situation also worsened. The percentage of individuals below this threshold grew by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25, reaching approximately 48% in 2024 compared to 44.7% in 2018. The regional analysis attributes the rising poverty to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 floods, inflation, currency depreciation, and extended economic adjustments, all of which contributed to the country’s deteriorating poverty indicators.
Poverty levels increase after a series of economic shocks
Earlier in 2026, a new household survey significantly revised regional poverty estimates. The updated figures raised MENAAP’s 2024 extreme poverty rate from 11.8% to 14.4%, adding roughly 21 million people to the region’s estimated total of those living in extreme poverty. As of September 2026, MENAAP was one of only two global regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, the other being Sub-Saharan Africa.
Despite a return to positive economic growth, Pakistan’s poverty levels remain high. The latest forecast predicts GDP growth of 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and 3.8% for fiscal 2026-27. Real GDP per capita is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is projected at 7.1% for 2026, rising to 8.2% in 2027, indicating that inflation will surpass 2026 levels even amid ongoing economic expansion.
Changes in regional classification influence poverty comparisons
The 48% share also reflects a statistical reorganization that affected regional comparisons. In September 2025, the World Bank shifted Pakistan and Afghanistan from South Asia into the MENAAP grouping. Pakistan’s government clarified that this administrative change did not alter the country’s geographic identity or income classification. Khurram Schehzad, an adviser to Pakistan’s Finance Minister, explained that the new regional grouping impacted poverty calculations because Pakistan’s large population was now included in MENAAP figures, thus influencing regional poverty proportions.
The October regional update also highlighted weaker economic conditions across MENAAP in 2026. It forecasted a contraction of 2.1% after a 3.3% growth in 2025, with ongoing conflicts and disruptions to energy, logistics, and trade hampering economic activity across several nations. Nonetheless, oil-importing developing economies, including Pakistan, showed relative resilience, with a predicted growth of 4.3% in 2026. Rising food and energy costs continued to exert pressure on household purchasing power across various countries within the region.